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Janus Henderson's US-based Multi-Asset Solutions Team present their latest tail risk report, using options market prices to infer expected tail gains and losses for each asset class. The options market implies that the three broad asset classes - growth, capital preservation and inflation - are unattractive at present. With profits reaching a new record in the second quarter of , according to data released last week, the suggestion is that any recession is unlikely before late at the earliest.
Have markets become too complacent? He also addresses the relative value of using rolling returns, rather than trailing returns, as a better guide to the experience of investing over time. The view here, by contrast, is that investment strength may be peaking ahead of weakness in El gestor de cartera Stephen Deane analiza los principales hallazgos, riesgos y oportunidades del viaje. Six-month growth of real narrow money in the G7 economies and seven large emerging economies appears to have fallen back in July while remaining above its February low.
The options-implied signals, for the first time in two years, no longer favour equities as the most attractive asset class. The August Inflation Report included a box discussing recent monetary developments. The analysis, however, is flawed. Members of the Janus Henderson Global Bonds Team explain why the return of positive real interest rates comes at a welcome time. Monetary trends have stabilised since early , suggesting that economic expansion will continue at around its recent pace through early — GDP may rise at a 1. Country narrow money details show weakness in France, surprising resilience in Italy and growing strength in Greece.
US narrow money has stagnated in real i.
Environmental, social, and governance ESG factors can have a material impact on financial returns. UK monetary trends have stabilised but remain weak, suggesting continued sub-par economic expansion. The view here remains that the MPC should wait for a rebound in money growth before considering a further rate hike.
Euroland monetary trends have stabilised, suggesting that economic growth will be sustained at its recent slower pace through late Real narrow money growth has fallen in Italy but is only slightly lower than in the other major economies, although a further slowdown is likely. Bethany Payne, Portfolio Manager, Global Bonds, explains what changed and the implications of the decision. Global six-month industrial output growth appears to have fallen sharply in May, consistent with the long-standing forecast here, based on monetary trends, of an economic slowdown starting around spring Chinese monetary trends remain worrying but non-monetary leading indicators are giving a more hopeful message for economic prospects.
A further slowdown is expected over the remainder of but weakness may be contained. GDP expenditure details for the first quarter released today are consistent with this assessment. Tom Ross, Credit Portfolio Manager, looks at developments in credit markets in and suggests that mini cycles within broader credit cycles can create opportunities. Distintos gestores de renta fija de Janus Henderson Investors analizan las implicaciones para estos mercados. The Emerging Market EM corporate debt market is a large and diverse stand-alone asset class.
Since its formal introduction in , the EM corporate bond universe has grown exponentially but despite its scale and breadth, many investors are unaware of its merits.
Blog Industria Hotelera | Bookassist blog | Madrid, España
In this report we seek to highlight the attributes of EM corporate debt, and compare it with its sovereign debt counterpart. Portfolio managers Andrew Mulliner and Tim Winstone consider the implications for fixed income. He cautions about a potential re-pricing of risk in financial markets. Is prudence the key for investors to tread the fine line between risk and reward at this point in the cycle?
So where does this leave investors? Here, Justin Tugman and Kevin Preloger, portfolio managers at Perkins Investment Management, give their thoughts on the growth vs value story, and outline why they believe that US small- and mid-caps present a better opportunity than their larger counterparts. The Bank of England left its benchmark Bank Rate at 0.
Downside risk for the currency, therefore, has increased.
Doug Rao, Co-portfolio Manager for the US Concentrated Growth Strategy, shares why he believes semiconductor content in autos could grow at a double-digit rate over the next decade. Brad Slingerlend, co-portfolio manager on the Denver-based Janus Henderson Global Technology Strategy, highlights the paradox facing US regulators over concerns about the use of data collected and generated by online social media platforms such as Facebook.
They explain why mega trends such as climate change, population growth and urbanisation could trigger a supply crisis as industrial activity competes with human consumption. They outline the potential solutions and discuss the investment implications. While the team is able to allocate to passive and active vehicles, Nick explains that market drivers currently support the case for the latter. Global perspectives Asset classes and allocations Market events Future trends. December — what will move? The politics of rising rates Nick Maroutsos, Co-Head of Global Bonds, looks at the factors that are driving the credit cycle.
He also explains why he believes the US Federal Reserve will want to avoid moving interest rates into restrictive territory and the strategies that can be adopted when investing in a rising rate environment. Brexit - now what? Flexibility in a low yield world Andrew Mulliner, Portfolio Manager within Global Bonds shares his views on where we are in the economic cycle, pointing out that the rising rates environment is not a global phenomenon.
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